The 'heartbreak curse' flag contender must overcome in 2026

The AFL season is around the corner, with practice matches ramping up around the country and teams shaping up for another marathon campaign.

And with that comes reason for optimism, but also lingering questions and doubts.

For some teams, those lingering questions will define their seasons. The answers, positive or negative, will be crucial to their success.

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So, team by team, here is the number one burning question on each head coach's mind heading into the season.

Adelaide

Burning question: Are we actually as good as we were in 2025?

After finishing bottom four and winning eight games in 2024, they were the sharp riser of 2025, winning 18 and claiming the minor premiership. Things did not go to plan from there, with the Crows losing eight straight quarters in September to bow out of finals in straight sets.

Now, heading into 2026, teams have had a chance to study their rise and they will be left asking themselves, simply, whether they can match that level of output once again.

Are they truly one of the contenders, or will they regress back into the pack fighting for the top eight? They rode a great fixture and extraordinary injury luck in 2025, two things that rarely replicate, but they also have a strong young core that could continue improving. 

Brisbane

Burning question: Will the Neale distraction stand between Lions and three-peat?

Brisbane enters the 2026 season with arguably the best list they've had, despite winning the last two premierships, and all that stands in their way is the intangibles that come with successfully climbing the mountain twice in a row.

One of those factors is simply motivation. No team has played more games across the last two years and it is a long road back to September. But this Lachie Neale saga threatens to either derail or galvanise the group early in the season.

Neale has stepped down as captain, but early losses would force the spotlight on what has been a summer full of distractions for the veteran leader of the Lions locker-room.

If they get off to a poor start, it will become a point of focus, and that would concern coach Chris Fagan.

Carlton

Burning question: What happens if it all goes wrong early?

Carlton showed last year that they might no longer be the team that sacks its head coach when the pressure reaches critical mass ... but they did then finish the season and get rid of basically everybody else in the football department.

Expectations feel lower in 2026 externally given the changes both off-field and on-field, but if things go wrong in the first half of the season, will the now out of contract Michael Voss survive the heat once again?

He is the only coach in the competition without a contract for 2027 and it will certainly be the thought lingering in every Blues fan's mind across the year. It will be a tough distraction to overcome.

Collingwood

Burning question: Does this group have one last premiership tilt in it?

The Magpies had the oldest list in the competition last year by a wide margin, and while they've parted ways with a couple of veterans like Mason Cox, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Brody Mihocek, they have retained the title of both oldest and most experienced side.

They will have 11 players over 30 by the end of the season, while Scott Pendlebury (38), Jeremy Howe (35 turning 36), Steele Sidebottom (35) and Jamie Elliott (33 turning 34) remain four of their most important players.

Collingwood has pushed its chips in on this group to see if it can bring home another flag, but 2025 showed that even though they were the dominant team of the first half of the season, it's tough for the oldest squad in the comp to maintain that gold standard across a whole season.

Essendon

Burning question: Are we rebuilding or is this group capable of more?

It's impossible to fully judge Essendon from a performance standpoint last year, given they battled potentially the greatest non-COVID injury crisis we have seen this century.

They unearthed a few quality players amid that chaos, they retained Zach Merrett and they added three top-end young guns in the draft.

Couple that with the sky not falling from an injury perspective, and there might be more scope for confidence at Tullamarine than many externally anticipate.

But even they wouldn't know where they sit in the pecking order right now and whether the list is good enough for a finals tilt, or whether they remain a few years away.

Fremantle

Burning question: How do we get to the next level?

Fremantle won 16 games last season, which is usually more than enough to cement yourself a top four spot, but the unprecedented gap between the top and bottom teams saw them stuck in the bottom half of the eight.

This year, their quest has to be getting back to that 16-win mark, assuming it will actually be enough to make the top four this time around.

However, that is easier said than done, and at this point it's fair to ask whether coach Justin Longmuir has what it takes to elevate this team into a true premiership contender.

They made minor tweaks to the list, but will be banking on internal improvement and some injury luck to take that next step. The jury remains out on whether they can mix it with the premiership contenders.

Geelong

Burning question: Can this group break the grand final heartbreak curse?

Recent history suggests the team that loses the grand final does not finish in the top four one year later. The last team to do so was, actually, Geelong in 2020, one of only two teams to do so since 2015.

Brisbane of course won the flag from fifth in 2023, but still had to go the long way to do so, which is not the pathway you'd want through September.

The Cats have taken great strides to add youth and speed to their list and went into last year's grand final clear favourites, but now they must start from scratch.

And history suggests that is a difficult path. Just look at Sydney in two of the last three years, the Bulldogs in 2021, the Giants in 2019 or the Crows in 2017. 

Gold Coast

Burning question: What more could we possibly need?

The Suns finally broke their finals drought last season and now the time for excuses is over.

They have added nine first-round picks in the last three drafts through their mighty academy, they've added superstar talent in Daniel Rioli and Christian Petracca, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan looks like a free swing that might pay immediate dividends and a premiership coach in Damien Hardwick steering the ship.

After years of irrelevance, the Suns have arguably the best list in the competition sans their Q-Clash rivals.

And anything short of a top four finish and a premiership tilt would feel like underdelivering.

GWS

Burning question: Has the injury dam wall broken before round one?

Tom Green out for the season, Sam Taylor may need surgery on his hamstring, Darcy Jones is recovering from a torn ACL, Josh Kelly might miss most of the season after hip surgery, Toby Bedford has a torn hamstring, Leek Aleer won't be ready for the start of the season and Finn Callaghan now has a hip issue as well.

It was a horror weekend for the Giants, with Green and Taylor going down in successive days and warping external expectations for their season.

Many will now predict them to slide out of the eight when putting season predictions together, and it's hard to blame them.

There's a lot riding on Clayton Oliver's shoulders now in that midfield. 

Hawthorn

Burning question: Is this a premiership-winning midfield without Merrett?

Hawthorn knew it desperately needed a superstar midfielder as the final piece of its premiership puzzle, hence going all-in to land Zach Merrett in the trade period.

Not only did they fail to get that done, but now star mid Will Day will miss the first half of the season with a shoulder injury. They also lost James Worpel to Geelong in free agency.

The Hawks have all the talent you'd hope for at either end of the ground, but that midfield leaves a lot to be desired, particularly as Day's injury history mounts.

They will need to conjure up some magic in there this season to contend. 

Melbourne

Burning question: Is this effectively a gap year?

It wouldn't be right to call this the start of a rebuild for Melbourne, given they have drafted half a dozen first round picks in the last few seasons, but it certainly the start of a new era.

Simon Goodwin, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver are gone, Steven May is on the outer and it's Steven King's world at Demonland.

King will effectively get a free hit of a season to reshape things to his liking, and external expectations are certainly off his shoulders for 2026.

But they still have six players on their list 33 and older, including captain Max Gawn, plus veterans like Jack Viney, Christian Salem, Ed Langdon, Jake Lever and Jack Steele. It will be tough to sell a gap year to that group. 

North Melbourne

Burning question: Is this Alastair Clarkson's last chance to get it right?

North Melbourne has been glued to the bottom of the ladder for the entirety of the 2020s and this has to be the year something changes.

With the amount of young talent they have brought in during that period, this feels like the season it has to happen for Clarkson's side. Roos fans have certainly been patient enough. 

It will be hard to avoid questions about Clarkson's ability to lead this group up the ladder if 2026 turns into another bottom four season.

They don't have to suddenly become a top eight side, but North fans have waited long enough for this team to at the very least rise out of the bottom four.

Port Adelaide

Burning question: Was Josh Carr the right man to go all in on?

Port Adelaide is setting itself the expectation of playing finals this year (and every year) according to chairman David Koch, which might be a little ambitious coming off a poor 2025.

They are also in a new era with coach Josh Carr at the helm, after a lengthy succession and handover process with Ken Hinkley.

Well, now it's time to find out whether he was the right man to go all-in on, as he looks to reshape the club and hopefully re-sign star midfielder Zak Butters.

Richmond

Burning question: Just how good is our young core?

Richmond has loaded up on young talent like nobody else across the last few years, adding seven of the top 28 players in the 2024 draft and pair of top 10 talents in 2025.

They have a young team brimming with talent and showed enough last season to suggest this might not be a lengthy rebuild.

If things go to plan, the Tigers might just find themselves in a position where they can splash a considerable trade period war chest of cash at the end of 2026 and bolster these youngsters with some mature talent.

If not, then it might be another 12-24 months of slowly letting this group grow up together.

St Kilda

Burning question: Have we cashed in on the right players?

St Kilda was by far the boldest team in last year's off-season, splashing millions to both retain top talent like Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera and Marcus Windhager, but also acquire four players from other clubs.

They are making an aggressive push to play finals, but they will have to hope Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan can help lead them there.

All have shown flashes or periods of brilliance across their careers, without sufficient consistency to have confidence in them.

Sydney

Burning question: Was Curnow the final piece of the premiership puzzle?

There's something about the Sydney Swans and going all-in on star key forwards. This time they gave away three first round picks, Will Hayward and Ollie Florent to land 29-year-old Charlie Curnow.

The Swans have made grand finals in 2022 and 2024 and finished last season in strong form, but they will hope adding a superstar key forward is the final piece of the premiership puzzle.

They now boast as much elite talent as any team in the competition and, if they can keep Curnow fit and firing, should be a scary proposition in 2026. Keeping him on the park has not been an easy task over the course of his career, however.

West Coast

Burning question: Does this team now have enough talent to get off the canvas?

After winning just one game in 2025 and losing more games in one season than any team in history, the only way is up for West Coast ... right?

It should be. They added the two best available talents in the draft in Willem Duursma and Cooper Duff-Tytler, they solidified their backline with Brandon Starcevich and Tylar Young and they should get healthier seasons from key players like Jake Waterman and Elliot Yeo.

Couple that with what might be the Harley Reid breakout year, and there's plenty of reason to be excited about the Eagles.

No one is expecting them to suddenly win 10 games, but even a half dozen would probably tick the box for a lot of fans.

Western Bulldogs

Burning question: Who emerges to fill the defensive void?

It's no secret the Bulldogs tried everything to snatch a star key defender in the trade period, but they ultimately came up short.

They've moved on from Liam Jones and Rory Lobb is 33. They'll be hoping James O'Donnell and Jedd Busslinger are able to emerge as young players capable of holding a key position slot down back.

If so, they want for nothing up forward and through the midfield and they boast some of the game's biggest stars. They should be aiming to contend, not just make up the numbers.