Rivals coming for 'struggling' Swiatek's crown

Matt Trollope is a journalist for Tennis Australia, which has contributed this piece

Iga Swiatek could become the first woman in more than 100 years to win four-straight Roland-Garros titles. But with her rivals sensing vulnerability, we could see a new champion crowned in Paris.

Swiatek's dominance on clay, especially at Roland-Garros, has made her practically a lock for the French title in recent years.

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But this time she arrives in Paris in a form slump, and somewhat startlingly will be seeded outside the top four.

After losing in the third round in Rome, where she was the defending champion, Swiatek fell to world No.5 – her lowest ranking in more than three years.

She has also failed to win a title since Roland-Garros last year. You have to go back to 2019, the year of her tour-level debut, to find a period when Swiatek went 12 months without hoisting a trophy.

Still, she knows better than anyone how to get it done in the French capital.

A winner of four of the past five editions and the three-time defending champion, Swiatek could become the first woman in more than 100 years to win four in a row. The last to do so was French legend Suzanne Lenglen in 1923.

Swiatek has hoarded French titles to such an extent that there are only two other women competing today – Jelena Ostapenko and Barbora Krejcikova – who have also won the event.

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So, will we see a new Roland-Garros women's singles champion, or will Swiatek rediscover her winning ways at her favourite tournament?

Sam Stosur, a Roland-Garros finalist in 2010 who reached another three semi finals, says either possibility is plausible.

"I think the other top players and contenders people might be talking about for the title are like: 'Oh, here's our time'," Stosur told ausopen.com.

"We know what she's done but she's not playing like that right now; she's been struggling, hasn't won a title, etc. You'd be like, 'This is my best chance probably in the last four or five years to be able to do that.

"Given the player she is, the champion she's been, she's won multiple grand slams and been No.1 – Iga does have a lot of experience to now think: 'OK, that is what I've got to now lean on going into this year's French Open, because I've proven time and time again that I can win it.

"So if she's ever going to feel good, it's gotta be coming now. She has to think of it as a positive that she's had the results at Roland-Garros, and not the other way around.

"But I would say most of the field are thinking: 'Nah, this is our opportunity here'."

So, who has the best opportunity? Stosur believes five players stand out.

Aryna Sabalenka

The world No.1 is increasingly dominant, having already reached six finals in 2025 and winning three – Brisbane, Miami and Madrid.

She's 11-2 on clay this year – she reached the Stuttgart final and Rome quarters either side of her Madrid triumph – and is now almost 4,000 ranking points ahead of second-ranked Coco Gauff.

Since 2021 Sabalenka has been the game's most consistent performer at the majors, reaching 10 semi finals, five finals and winning three titles, most recently the 2024 US Open.

She's also come incredibly close in Paris, losing to Karolina Muchova from match point up in the 2023 semi finals, then last year suffering an illness-affected quarterfinal loss to Mirra Andreeva.

Stosur described those moments as "little blips" that just happened to come at huge moments for her. "I don't see that happening again," she said.

"As each year's gone on, she's become more dominant, she's won multiple slams now, so it's kind of obvious that she's got that experience and backing behind her.

"One thing that she always does is bounce back so well, and I find it hard to believe that we're going to see that sort of snap from her again this year.

"I think she's going to be extremely tough. There's no reason why she can't win Roland-Garros; she's got a huge game. I don't think there're as many clay-court specialists; I think everyone can play on it.

"I will be interested to see how the next couple of weeks go, and play out with her and Gauff."

Coco Gauff

One of the big beneficiaries of Swiatek's ranking fall, Gauff takes the No.2-seeded position at the opposite end of the draw to Sabalenka, meaning they can only meet in the final.

The last time they met in a major final, Gauff upset Sabalenka to win the 2023 US Open, but expressed surprise her first grand slam title was in New York – she always imagined it would come at Roland-Garros.

The closest she got in Paris was the 2022 final, where she was overwhelmed by Swiatek. But she's wrested control of the match-up and won their past three meetings in straight sets, including a 6-1 6-1 thrashing in the recent Madrid semi finals.

"It was quite interesting to see that result and how it looked like Iga handled it, and everything was a bit shocking, really. It was really unusual, given their past history," Stosur said.

"Coco making back-to-back finals [in Madrid and Rome] is definitely a big boost in her year, because she hadn't been incredible, I think that's fair to say, right? Last couple of weeks, she's managed to turn that around."

Indeed, Gauff heads to Paris having won 10 of her past 12 matches on clay.

Jasmine Paolini

The last of those matches was a loss in the Rome final to Italy's Paolini, a stunning triumph that electrified fans at the Foro Italico while reminding everyone of her clay-court credentials.

Last year at Roland-Garros Paolini powered into her first major final, then reached the Wimbledon final to establish herself as a bright new star.

Back inside the top four, she'll be looking to repeat her Parisian feat and go one better.

"Paolini winning Rome, plus the doubles – that's a heck of an effort," Stosur said.

"I wouldn't have said going into this year, 'OK Paolini can make a couple of grand slam finals again'... but she's just played at an event [Rome] where everyone's playing, and she's gone and won it, with that hometown feeling.

"That's huge for her going into Roland-Garros now, trying to back up a finals appearance."

Mirra Andreeva

Teenage star Andreeva has risen to a career-high ranking of world No.6 but is third in the Race to the WTA Finals after an outstanding season.

Already in 2025, the 18-year-old has scooped WTA 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells and continues to add to her game as she grows – literally – and matures.

Beating Sabalenka in last year's Roland-Garros quarter finals sent her through to her first grand slam semi final, yet Stosur believes the pressure could go up a notch for her in Paris this year.

"She's been in probably the form of the year, really," Stosur said.

"I know this year she's been exceptionally good and we've seen improvements in all parts of her game. Now this is sort of the first time where she's going into a tournament and people are maybe talking about her.

"It could be a really interesting couple of weeks for her, with all of those elements. It's not just about hitting tennis balls and playing tennis, now; if she allows those other things to maybe enter her thoughts, how does she handle that?

"She's got an excellent person with her in Conchita Martinez to handle that side of things, and I've really enjoyed seeing their partnership grow.

"This will probably be one of the biggest tests that they've had so far."

Zheng Qinwen

Stosur said she would "throw a spanner in the works" by mentioning Qinwen's name among the favourites.

"The last time anyone played at Roland-Garros was the Olympics, where she won gold," Stosur pointed out.

"It was expected that Iga would probably win gold there and she ended up with bronze. Even just talking about psyche, going back to a place where you've been so dominant, but the last result she had there was probably quite disappointing. You just never know where players hold that sort of stuff months and months later.

"On the flipside, for Qinwen winning gold, gosh, you're gonna feel pretty good going back there."

Zheng, the AO 2024 finalist, may not have lit up the early parts of 2025 in the same way, but she's quietly built a solid record, reaching back-to-back quarter finals at Indian Wells and Miami and maintaining her place in the top 10.

Since switching to clay, she made another quarter final in Charleston, then pushed Gauff to the limit in a compelling Rome semi final.

"She's had a very good result last week," Stosur said, "and at the last sort of minute maybe puts her hand up to say: 'hang on, I'm still here, you guys, I'm still around'."