'Important stat' that could cripple favourites for $1m Oaks

There's two hot chances with the bookmakers heading into Thursday's VRC Crown Oaks - but there could a major upset brewing in the Group 1 feature.

On the third day of the carnival at Flemington, some of the best fillies from across the country will race over 2500 metres in the time-honoured three-year-old classic.

Treasurethe Moment is set to start favourite after a strong win on Derby day, but according to Sky Racing analyst Marc Ohlmus, one of the outsiders in the race could cause some trouble.

READ MORE: Titans player in the crosshairs over bet slip photo

READ MORE: How trainers 'got it terribly wrong' with shock Cup winner

READ MORE: 'Tragic': Lightning strike kills player during game

"It's going to be a really interesting race," he told Wide World of Sports' VRC Oaks preview show.

"It's kind of been blown out a bit for mine, with the favourite drawing very wide Treasurethe Moment, who was very good in the Wakeful.

"There was a lot to like about the winning margin, along with Powers Of Opal who is second favourite for the Oaks. I'm willing to take those two on - we saw in the Derby a few being really tested at the 2500 metres and I think we're going to see the same.

"Treasurethe Moment from a wider draw is gonna have to snag right back and has drawn barrier 12. She's either gonna have to go back or they are gonna have to push the button, go forward and use a lot of petrol early, which I don't think is going to be ideal.

"The third scenario is that she sits three deep and then she definitely can't win.

"She is very good and Yulong are winning everything at the moment, but price-related, I'm more than willing to take her on."

Watch the 2024 Melbourne Cup Carnival on Nine and 9Now!

Instead of the top two hopes from a betting perspective, Ohlmus is eyeing off one roughie in particular who could cause a major upset.

Inevitable Truth - one of just two runners yet to win a race in her career - is rated a $23 chance with TAB but has drawn the inside gate and gets Jye McNeil in the saddle.

"I have been with (Inevitable Truth) since her Oaks trial and even before that actually, I loved her pedigree and she's actually half to a Sydney Derby winner in Angel Of Truth," he said.

"I don't think the 2500 metres is going to be of any concern. I have to stick with her on that basis and you are getting a fantastic price. She is probably going to settle three back the fence and draws barrier one.

"Barriers are all-important for this race, going back through the last 10 editions only two fillies have won from outside barrier seven and I think that's a really important stat.

"John Sargent has won the Oaks before and always has a good filly and I think this might be his next one."

Odds courtesy of TAB. Correct as of November 6.

1. Treasurethe Moment (12) 

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Matt Laurie

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 6: 4-2-0

Last 6: 1x2111

Earnings: $378,338

Odds: $3.30 / $1.55

2. Too Darn Discreet (3)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Dan O'Sullivan

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 6: 3-1-0

Last 6: 4x7111

Earnings: $353,225

Odds: $8 / $2.50

3. Harlem Queen (5)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Nathan Doyle

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 6: 2-1-1

Last 6: 4x1124

Earnings: $292,100

Odds: $6 / $2.10

4. Rag Queen (4)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: Chad Schofield

Career: 7: 1-0-1

Last 6: 6x0747

Earnings: $271,275

Odds: $26 / $6

5. Powers Of Opal (9)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: John Sargent

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 7: 1-1-1

Last 6: x43412

Earnings: $138,875

Odds: $3.80 / $1.65

6. Pleasure Artist (6)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Craig Williams

Jockey: R & W Freedman

Career: 4: 1-1-0

Last 6: 4125

Earnings: $111,550

Odds: $17 / $4.20

7. Talisay (8)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Billy Egan

Jockey: Byron Cozamanis

Career: 10: 2-0-3

Last 6: 641336

Earnings: $105,770

Odds: $31 / $7

8. Femminile (13)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Stackhouse

Career: 5: 1-0-1

Last 6: 61x963

Earnings: $87,995

Odds: $19 / $4.60

9. Killcare Beachgirl (2)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: G Waterhouse & A Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 6: 1-0-3

Last 6: 7x3363

Earnings: $87,550

Odds: $31 / $7

10. Noises (11)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Brad Widdup

Jockey: Andrew Adkins

Career: 6: 2-2-0

Last 6: x21128

Earnings: $84,375

Odds: $81 / $16

11. Hurry Curry (7)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Career: 4: 2-0-0

Last 6: 6115

Earnings: $63,700

Odds: $26 / $6

12. Inevitable Truth (1)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: John Sargent

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 6: 0-2-0

Last 6: x25244

Earnings: $42,450

Odds: $23 / $5

13. Placid Pearl (14)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: Matthew Smith

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 4: 1-2-0

Last 6: 2421

Earnings: $27,750

Odds: $41 / $9

14. All Kinds Of Folk (10)

Weight: 56kg

Trainer: J & C Ledger

Jockey: Luke Currie

Career: 5: 0-0-1

Last 6: 34489

Earnings: $21,535

Odds: $101 / $18