Cup form guide: Payne backs German 'X-factor' to fire

MICHELLE PAYNE is an expert analyst, trainer, VRC ambassador and remains the only female jockey to win the race that stops the nation.

I think this year's Lexus Melbourne Cup is going to be really interesting with the weather and that changes things a lot and makes it very exciting.

I'm leaning towards one overseas raider at good odds to salute in the $10 million race, with one of the favourites not too far behind and some X-factors in the mix. 

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1. Al Riffa (19)

Weight: 59kg

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 17: 5-6-1

Odds: $7 / $2.80

Huge raps on this horse coming out from Europe. He seems to be one of the best horses that Joseph O'Brien has brought out here and he's won the Melbourne Cup twice and a Cox Plate. A very interesting runner who has drawn tricky and has a big weight, but likes the wet and is definitely one to look at.

2. Buckaroo (12)

Weight: 57kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 31: 5-6-6

Odds: $11 / $3.90

He's flying at the moment. I think he is going the best he has ever been and going into a Melbourne Cup. There's always been an air of excitement about this horse, so maybe we might see it on Tuesday.

3. Arapaho (15)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 49: 10-6-4

Odds: $34 / $10

Needs to improve. He obviously stays very well and likes the wet, which puts him into at least some kind of calculations.

4. Vauban (2)

Weight: 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 32: 11-5-4

Odds: $23 / $7

Has the ability, but will need to improve on the day.

5. Chevalier Rose (5)

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 35: 5-5-2

Odds: $51 / $12

It's a hard one to line up, but the Japanese runners know what they are doing. He is a very interesting runner in the Cup. 

6. Presage Nocturne (9)

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Alessandro Botti

Jockey: Stephane Pasquier

Career: 18: 6-5-3

Odds: $8.50 / $3

Terrific lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup and certainly can't rule it out. 

7. Middle Earth (13)

Weight: 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ethan Brown

Career: 18: 5-3-2

Odds: $34 / $10

I'm just not sure if he is going quite good enough, but you can never rule out Ciaron Maher and his stayers in these races.

8. Meydaan (22)

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Simon & Ed Crisford

Jockey: James McDonald

Career: 17: 3-2-2

Odds: $23 / $6

Beautiful lead-up run in the Caulfield Cup. Tricky barrier, but if the rain comes that will bring him into calculations.

9. Absurde (4)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Willie Mullins

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 29: 7-7-6

Odds: $16 / $5

My pick of the race. I think the barrier is crucial for him. Terrific run in last year's Melbourne Cup and the year before that, so this could be third time lucky.

10. Flatten The Curve (17)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Henk Grewe

Jockey: Thor Hammer-Hansen

Career: 54: 11-10-5

Odds: $21 / $6

He looks to have a bit of X-factor about. He's been ultra-impressive in his starts in Germany and looms as a really interesting runner.

11. Land Legend (16)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Joao Moreira

Career: 24: 4-2-2

Odds: $51 / $14

Needs to improve a lot. Very interesting to see they have booked Joao Moreira, but I think others are looking better at this stage. 

12. Smokin Romans (11)

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 53: 11-9-3

Odds: $51 / $14

Pretty similar to the above - you need to have a horse like him flying going into a Melbourne Cup and he's not quite there.

13. Changingoftheguard (24)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Kris Lees

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 18: 4-3-3

Odds: $61 / $16

Not the best lead-up run, weakening in the Caulfield Cup, but it's not impossible for him to turn things around.

14. Half Yours (8)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy

Jockey: Jamie Melham

Career: 15: 7-3-0

Odds: $7.50 / $2.90

Terrific chance from a great barrier. Really comes into it even more if the rain comes and looks to be a huge chance. 

15. More Felons (23)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 24: 6-3-0

Odds: $51 / $14

Building beautifully and the wet track will be no problem for him. Definitely has to be given a hope.

16. Onesmoothoperator (6)

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Brian Ellison

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 51: 6-11-7

Odds: $31 / $9

Ran terrific in the lead-up with a last start win. Certainly comes into calculations.

17. Furthur (7)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: Andrew Balding

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 8-2-2-0

Odds: $31 / $8

I don't think they would have brought him out here just for fun, but it does need to improve to be a chance.

18. Parchment Party (3)

Weight: 52kg

Trainer: William Mott

Jockey: John Valezquez

Career: 22: 8-2-2

Odds: $51 / $14

Very interesting runner, first American horse to come out. Looks a really impressive type of horse, big and grand. Interesting to see him back on grass from the dirt.

19. Athabascan (1)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton

Jockey: Declan Bates

Career: 39: 4-6-4

Odds: $61 / $16

Has been building really well and an interesting runner having drawn barrier one. Certainly in with a hope on a light weight.

20. Goodie Two Shoes (20)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Joseph O'Brien

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 26: 13-0-7

Odds: $31 / $9

Similar to some of the other runners brought out here, they wouldn't have brought her out here for fun and she's definitely a light weight hope.

21. River Of Stars (14)

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Beau Mertens

Career: 22: 4-6-5

Odds: $16 / $4.60

Progressing really well and looks a nice light weight chance. 

22. Royal Supremacy (21)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher

Jockey: Robbie Dolan

Career: 17: 6-4-3

Odds: $26 / $8

Very similar, progressing well and looks a good chance with last year's Melbourne Cup winning jockey on board at a light weight. 

23. Torranzino (18)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Paul Preusker

Jockey: Celine Gaudray

Career: 33: 6-7-2

Odds: $34 / $9

Good tough stayer who is hitting form at the right time and is another nice chance at a low weight.

24. Valiant King (10)

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Chris Waller

Jockey: Jye McNeil

Career: 20: 2-4-2

Odds: $9.50 / $3.40

Lead-up runs have been terrific, probably couldn't have been much better. Looks to be a huge chance with the light weight.

Michelle Payne's Melbourne Cup tips

My top selection is Absurde ($23) and I think the barrier is the key for him.

My second pick is Jamie Melham's mount Half Yours ($6.50) with the barrier and the way the horse keeps stepping up to the mark each time.

From there, I have put in Flatten The Curve ($26) and I think there's an X-factor about this guy and I'm very excited to see him take on the Cup.

It's very hard, there are so many chances, but I'm leaning towards Celine Gaudray and Torranzino ($34) to give her a good thrill and nice finish. 

1. ABSURDE

2. HALF YOURS

3. FLATTEN THE CURVE

4. TORRANZINO